Todd Sandler
Terrorism
and Game theory
2003
1)
Theory
Terrorism explained by game theory:1) terrorists’
choice of target, 2) government’s choice between preemption and deterrence, 3)
gov concessionary policy when terrorists are hadliners and moderates.
2)
Method
Game theory. Positivism. Rational choice
3)
Evidence
-
Gov to choose between preemptive/proactive
and reactive -> generates game theory between govs.
-
Terrorist to choose who to
attack. Game tree for target(business or tourist)
-
Possibility of adverse selection(상대 고르기) increasese
with hardliner’s demands. Cost of violence goes up, this likelihood goes down. When
gov’s and hardliner’s preference converges, cost of violence(V) = sole determinant
of adverse-selection equilibrium. (??)
-
-> this is why diaspora are
essential in perpetuating violence, although they need a solution. It generates
perpetuating hostilities.
-
4)
Conclusion
5)
Critique
Use
of game theory and model necessary? You still need to interprete the model.
